Nine trends of medium - and long-term development of electric power in China

With the large-scale development of clean energy and the continuous increase of the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption, the characteristics of modern energy systems with electricity as the center and power grid as the platform are more obvious. The low-carbon transformation of power structure is accelerating, the power grid's ability to optimize the allocation of resources in a wider range is further enhanced, the role of demand-side resources and energy storage in system operation is becoming more important, and the coordination and optimization of source-net-charge-storage makes the power system more capable of accepting clean energy, effectively promoting the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.

Under the conventional transformation scenario with relatively balanced implementation of various transformation measures and the electrification acceleration scenario with faster improvement of the electrification level, based on the self-developed energy demand forecast model, the multi-regional power system source and network load and storage coordinated planning model and the multi-regional power system source and network load and storage coordinated production simulation model, we have formed nine judgments on the medium and long-term development trend of China's power.

There is still considerable room for growth in electricity demand

The total demand for electricity continues to grow, and the growth rate gradually slows down, entering the growth saturation stage around 2035, and the saturation point is delayed by 10 to 15 years compared with the energy demand, and the electricity demand will double on the current level in 2050, reaching 12.3 trillion to 14.4 trillion KWH, and the per capita electricity consumption will reach 8800 to 10,300 KWH. The proportion of electricity used by the industrial sector has gradually decreased, and it will still be the most important power consumption sector in 2050. The proportion of electricity consumption in the construction sector increased rapidly; Due to the small electricity consumption base of the transportation sector, although the electricity growth is obvious, the proportion of total electricity consumption is still low.

The installed power capacity continues to grow

Before 2050, the installed power supply will maintain rapid and sustained growth, and under the conventional transformation scenario and the electrification acceleration scenario, the installed capacity will reach 2.87 billion kilowatts and 3.63 billion kilowatts respectively in 2030, and the installed capacity will reach 4.43 billion kilowatts and 5.75 billion kilowatts respectively in 2050. The incremental part is mainly clean energy, and the power supply structure is gradually optimized. Under the two scenarios, the installed capacity of clean power supply will reach 1.54 billion kilowatts and 2.17 billion kilowatts respectively in 2030, and 3.51 billion kilowatts and 4.69 billion kilowatts respectively in 2050.