Analysis and prospect of electric power development in 2018

Current development situation and challenge of China's electric power industry

Clean, intelligent, international and market-oriented electric power development is the general trend of The Times

First, the power supply structure is clean. On the one hand, the proportion of clean energy installed capacity will be significantly increased. China's ecological and environmental constraints continue to tighten, and the pace of clean adjustment of the power structure will be further accelerated. By 2020, the proportion of non-fossil energy installed in China will exceed 40%. It is predicted that in the next 20 years, China's renewable energy growth will exceed that of the European Union and the United States combined. On the other hand, the clean utilization rate of coal power will continue to improve. In the past decade, China's coal power emission performance has declined significantly, with the strict control of the scale of coal power development, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and vigorously implement flexible transformation work, the clean utilization rate of coal power will continue to improve.

Second, the intelligent power system. On the one hand, the intelligent power system is an objective requirement for clean, green, safe and efficient development, to achieve centralized and distributed supply, traditional energy and new energy power generation collaboration, enhance peak load capacity building, improve the load side response level, and build an efficient and intelligent power system has become an inevitable choice. On the other hand, advanced information technology provides technical support for the intelligent development of power systems, advanced information technology such as big data, cloud computing, Internet of things, mobile Internet and deep integration with the power industry, smart grid, electric vehicles, wireless charging and other fields of technology rapid breakthrough, distributed intelligent supply system will be widely used.

Third, the internationalization of electric power development. First of all, the field of energy and power is an important position for Chinese enterprises to "go out", the national implementation of the "going out" strategy, the "Belt and Road" initiative, China's energy and power overseas investment, construction projects continue to increase, all-round, multi-field power opening up pattern more clear. Second, the pace of internationalization of Chinese energy and power enterprises continues to accelerate, and in-depth cooperation has been carried out in Europe, the United States, Asia, Africa and Latin America, including power projects, financial business and other international businesses, and constantly expand overseas business models. Third, the construction of the global energy Internet has opened up a broader space for international cooperation in electric power. The differences in economic development and resource endowments of different countries and regions have determined that the construction of the global energy Internet has significant economy and competitiveness, and contains huge commercial value.

Fourth, market-based systems and mechanisms. A new round of reform of the electric power system has been comprehensively promoted in many fields such as power generation, transmission, distribution, sales and users, and a multi-model and multi-level pilot pattern has taken shape. Direct power purchase by large users, cross-provincial and cross-regional bidding transactions, and retail transactions on the electricity sales side have begun to take shape, and the proportion of market-oriented transaction electricity is increasing. With the gradual maturity of market players, the power generation and power sales side will form a trading pattern of diversified players and orderly competition, and new formats and business model innovation continue to emerge, which is leading the new direction of the development of the power industry.

Electric power development faces a series of challenges

First, the problem of disharmony between power supply and power grid, AC and DC, coal power and clean energy development still exists. China's energy production and consumption reverse distribution, "there is no electricity transmission, there is no electricity transmission" problems exist at the same time; The problem of "tetanic and weak" in power grids is prominent, and the development of UHV AC is relatively lagging behind. The installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation is growing rapidly, and the system's peak load balancing capacity is difficult to meet the needs of new energy development.

Second, the problems of power supply structure adjustment, power market construction, and insufficient resource utilization efficiency exist to varying degrees. The development of new energy does not match the market, the construction cycle is not synchronized with the power grid, the proportion of heating units in the "three North" district is high, and the proportion of flexible peaking power supplies in the northeast and Northwest regions is low; The electricity market trading mechanism is not perfect, the market non-standard behavior lacks effective supervision, and the punishment mechanism for dishonesty needs to be improved. The problem of "abandoning water, wind and light" is still serious, and nuclear abandonment occurs from time to time.

Third, the production and operation situation of electric power enterprises is grim. From the power generation side, the price of thermal coal continues to be high, which greatly pushes up the power generation cost of coal power enterprises. China Coastal thermal coal Purchase Price Index (CECI) shows that on January 26, 2018, the spot price of 5,500 kcal was 744 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 75 yuan/ton in two months; In 2017, the purchase cost of thermal coal increased by 200 billion yuan compared with 2016, which became the most important factor in the large-scale loss of the coal power industry and the decline in the efficiency of the power industry. Lower market transaction prices drag down the income of power generation enterprises. Since 2015, the national benchmark electricity price of coal power has been lowered twice, affecting the revenue of coal power enterprises by 200 billion yuan; The scale of market-oriented electricity transactions has expanded and the price of electricity transactions has decreased, and power enterprises have made great contributions to reducing social costs, but their own operating income and profits have dropped significantly. Renewable energy subsidies are not in place to increase the burden of financial costs of enterprises. There is a shortfall of nearly 100 billion yuan in subsidies. Environmental protection cost input and operation and maintenance can not be channeled through electricity price. Huge investment in power generation environmental protection transformation, operation and maintenance costs are higher than environmental protection electricity price subsidies. From the grid side, the approved power transmission and distribution price is nearly 1 cent less per KWH than the current purchase and sale price difference. The government work report put forward: "Reduce the grid link charges, transmission and distribution prices, general industrial and commercial electricity prices by an average of 10%." In addition, affected by factors such as the scale of coal power production and the "suspension and delay" of